Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
