A mere two months ago when the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him for not reading a through-ball. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were an indicator or the reason of the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. When the England international curled home his second strike to restore his side's advantage, the boss tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six matches, find themselves just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
It remains a particularly tough question to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, even as the positive results have accumulated.
As per the data, in only two games has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side that have just won 10 in a row, they seem strangely fragile – yet right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa have to face in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the hero faced the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.
